Bid or no bid
Tender win chance: know your odds before you spend the hours
A tender win chance is an estimate of how well a tender fits your business, used to decide whether to bid. It compares what the buyer asks for, the contract size and the buyer itself with your profile. It is a guide for the bid or no bid decision, never a promise of winning.
Last updated 22 October 2026
Why does bid or no bid matter?
Writing a tender response takes real time, often days of it, from people who could be doing billable work. Every bid you should not have started is time you do not get back.
The best bid teams are selective. They bid where they fit, and say no early to the rest.
What goes into a win chance?
A useful estimate looks at the same things a sensible bid manager would check.
- What the buyer is asking for, and whether you do it.
- The size of the contract compared with the work you normally deliver.
- The buyer: whether you have sold to them or similar buyers before.
- Location, timing and anything mandatory that you could not meet.
- How the tender will be scored, and where your evidence is strong or thin.
What can a win chance not tell you?
It cannot see your competitors, and it cannot know how good your final answer will be. A high estimate on a poorly written bid will still lose. A lower estimate on a tender where you have a real relationship may still be worth a try.
Treat it as a way to focus attention, then apply your own judgement.
What does it look like?
Example only, not a real tender: a notice for grounds maintenance at a mid-sized council shows Win 32%, with three reasons for and two against. Strong fit on service and area, a contract larger than your usual work, and no prior work for that buyer. You read the reasons, and decide whether to bid, partner or pass.
How should you act on a score?
- High: read the full documents now and plan the bid.
- Middle: look at the reasons against. Can you close the gap with a partner or a better example?
- Low: pass, unless you have a strategic reason to bid.
- Always: keep a note of why you decided, so you improve over time.
How Opptix helps
Opptix screens each opportunity against your company profile and shows the reasons behind the estimate, so you can disagree with it. It is there to save you from reading the wrong tenders, not to make the decision for you.
Read more about the method on how win chance works, or see screening.
Frequently asked questions
What is a tender win chance?
It is an estimate of how well a tender fits your business, shown to help you decide whether to bid. It is never a guarantee of winning.
How does Opptix work out the win chance?
It compares the tender's requirements, size and buyer with your company profile, and shows the reasons. The method and its limits are on the how win chance works page.
Is a high win chance a promise?
No. It is an estimate of fit. The quality of your answer, your price and your competitors all affect the result.
Should I bid on everything with a high score?
Not automatically. Check the deadline, the documents and your capacity, then decide.
Can I override the screening?
Yes. You see the reasons and you make the decision.
See it on your own market
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